📈 SPX/USD — S&P 500 Finishes Strongest Week Since June
Key Highlights
- SPX/USD trades at 6860, +3.73% on the week
- Fed cut odds at 85% trigger broad risk rally
- November ends slightly positive despite mid-month weakness
- Mega-cap tech rebounds: Apple ATH, Broadcom +18%
Market Overview
Thanksgiving week delivered a major sentiment reversal, helping the S&P 500:
✔ Break a 3-week slide
✔ Log its best weekly performance since June
✔ Finish November positive
The catalysts:
- New York Fed’s Williams supports cuts
- Market embraces early-December easing
- Labor trends soft enough to justify cuts
- Strong online holiday shopping season
- Resilient mega-cap tech earnings
Surprisingly:
- The Nasdaq still finished November –1.5%, signaling lingering concerns about tech valuations.
This week brings high-impact macro catalysts:
- ISM Manufacturing (Mon)
- ADP Employment (Wed)
- ISM Services (Wed)
- PCE Inflation (Fri) — the most important
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic rising → renewed bullish momentum
- Price above 20MA → trend intact
- Next stop: 6927
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 6860.05
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 6927.72 | 6775.81 |
| 7031.41 | 6680.63 |
Fremora Takeaway
The S&P looks strong heading into December.
Break 6927 → target 7031.
Pullbacks into 6775 likely get bought unless PCE shocks higher.
🛢 WTI CRUDE (USO/USD) — Oil Attempts Recovery But Fundamentals Still Weak
Key Highlights
- WTI trades at 59.35, rebounding from November lows
- Peace signals in Russia-Ukraine cut risk premium
- US sanctions create supply uncertainty
- OPEC+ expected to keep output steady
Market Overview
WTI is stabilizing after weeks of selling, boosted by:
✔ Slightly improved geopolitical tone
✔ Traders positioning ahead of key OPEC+ dates
✔ A technical rebound from oversold levels
But medium-term fundamentals still point bearish:
- Russian supply uncertainty (sanctions)
- Global supply to rise by 3.1m bpd in 2025
- Commercial inventories rising
- US production at record levels
- Chinese demand rolling over due to EV + LNG shift
Market expectations:
- OPEC+ to maintain current output strategy
- No supply cuts anticipated
- Risk premium compressed → lowers prices
Technical Outlook (H4)
- Stochastic cooling → momentum losing strength
- Price above 20MA → short-term recovery
- Rally likely corrective, not trend reversal
Updated Levels (4H)
Current Price: 59.35
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 60.11 | 58.54 |
| 60.82 | 57.79 |
Fremora Takeaway
WTI’s bounce is technical, not structural.
Break above 60.11 could extend toward 60.82, but fundamental risks remain to the downside.
Medium-term: still bearish unless OPEC surprises with supply cuts.
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Disclaimer
This report is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.