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EUR/USD — ECB Decision in Focus

Key Highlights

• ECB decision drives near-term direction
• Dollar subdued amid US data blackout
• Iran nuclear talks ease geopolitical risk
• RBA hawkish surprise highlights policy divergence

Market Overview

EUR/USD remains steady near 1.1813 as traders stay sidelined ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank decision. Price action reflects cautious positioning, with neither bulls nor bears willing to commit aggressively before guidance from Frankfurt clarifies the policy outlook.

The Dollar continues to trade without conviction as the partial US government shutdown disrupts economic data flow. With Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls delayed, markets are forced to lean on private indicators like ADP, increasing uncertainty and sensitivity to surprises.

Geopolitically, Iran’s announcement that nuclear talks with the US will resume in Turkey has reduced immediate escalation fears. This shift toward diplomacy has softened safe-haven demand and helped stabilize broader risk sentiment.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price consolidating below 20-period EMA
• Momentum building, but trend still cautious

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.1870; 1.1940
Support: 1.1741; 1.1669

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD is coiling ahead of a catalyst. A clear ECB signal could unlock volatility, especially with US employment data absent. Above 1.1870, upside momentum can accelerate. Below 1.1741, consolidation risks turning into a deeper correction.

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GOLD — Recovery Meets Resistance

Key Highlights

• Gold rebounds toward $5,000
• Iran-US talks reduce escalation risk
• Government shutdown clouds macro clarity
• Volatility remains elevated

Market Overview

Gold continues its recovery, trading near 4,984 after rebounding sharply from last week’s historic selloff. The bounce signals strong dip-buying interest following extreme liquidation, particularly after silver’s violent collapse raised fears of broader contagion.

However, the restart of Iran-US nuclear negotiations introduces a counterweight to safe-haven demand. Diplomatic progress, if sustained, could limit gold’s upside despite ongoing uncertainty around US data and policy visibility.

The absence of official labor market data due to the shutdown keeps macro ambiguity high—an environment that both supports gold structurally and caps momentum tactically.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic turning lower from overbought
• Price consolidating around 20-period EMA
• Recovery intact, but losing momentum

Key Levels

Resistance: 5177.98; 5452.39
Support: 4780.81; 4491.95

Fremora Takeaway

Gold has stabilized impressively, but the recovery now faces resistance. Holding above 4,780 keeps the rebound valid. Failure there risks reopening downside toward 4,500. Expect consolidation, not trend acceleration, unless fresh risk shocks emerge.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Holds Firm

Key Highlights

• Pound resilient amid Dollar uncertainty
• BoE policy backdrop supports Sterling
• Risk sentiment stabilizes
• ADP data gains importance

Market Overview

GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3695, showing relative strength versus peers as the Dollar struggles under the weight of policy uncertainty and data disruption. Sterling’s ability to hold above the 1.3650 zone reflects persistent underlying demand.

The Bank of England’s less dovish stance compared to Fed expectations continues to provide structural support. Meanwhile, improving risk sentiment tied to geopolitical de-escalation adds incremental tailwinds.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rising toward overbought
• Price holding near 20-period EMA
• Bullish momentum building

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.3780; 1.3869
Support: 1.3591; 1.3494

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling remains technically constructive. A break above 1.3780 opens the door back toward cycle highs. Loss of 1.3591 would signal renewed corrective pressure.