EUR/USD — Fed Pressure Caps Euro

Key Highlights

• Trump attacks Fed independence publicly
• Dollar rebounds modestly from four-year lows
• Tech selloff tempers risk appetite
• Focus shifts to Apple earnings and shutdown risk

Market Overview
EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1932 as markets absorb President Trump’s unprecedented public assault on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While the Dollar Index rebounded slightly to 96.20, the recovery appears technical rather than structural, with political pressure on monetary policy credibility remaining the dominant narrative.

Trump’s demand for immediate rate cuts and his attacks on Powell’s leadership have intensified concerns over institutional independence, offsetting the Fed’s recent hawkish hold and Powell’s assertion that the US economy entered 2026 “on a firm footing.” The sharp selloff in US technology stocks — led by Microsoft’s worst session since 2020 — further complicated sentiment, briefly supporting the Dollar as a haven.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic consolidating in neutral territory
• Price holding above the 20-period EMA
• Energy building for the next directional move

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1996; 1.2082
• Support: 1.1848; 1.1761

Fremora Takeaway
EUR/USD is pausing, not reversing. As long as price holds above 1.1848, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A break above 1.1996 would reopen the path toward 1.2082, while failure to defend support risks a deeper consolidation toward 1.1761.

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GOLD — Volatility Signals Reset

Key Highlights

• Gold reverses sharply from record highs
• Iran strike rhetoric fuels extreme volatility
• Trump–Fed conflict undermines confidence
• Tech sector collapse triggers profit-taking

Market Overview
Gold undergoes a violent correction after surging to a record $5,598, retreating to the $5,217 zone amid heavy profit-taking. While geopolitical risks remain elevated — including potential US strikes on Iran and a carrier group positioned in the Middle East — the magnitude of the prior rally prompted traders to reduce exposure.

Trump’s direct attack on Fed independence, combined with collapsing technology stocks and renewed shutdown risk, continues to underpin gold’s longer-term appeal despite near-term exhaustion.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rolling lower from overbought
• Price still above the 20-period EMA
• Correction phase developing

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5385.39; 5561.73
• Support: 5051.15; 4856.32

Fremora Takeaway
Gold is cooling, not breaking. Holding above 5051 keeps the broader uptrend intact, but failure there risks a deeper retracement. A recovery above 5385 would signal renewed upside intent toward record highs.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Holds Firm

Key Highlights

• Pound resilient despite Dollar rebound
• Fed credibility concerns favor non-USD assets
• Tech collapse supports defensive flows
• UK policy seen as more insulated

Market Overview
GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3763 as Sterling continues to benefit from structural Dollar weakness tied to political interference in US monetary policy. Trump’s attacks on Powell contrast sharply with the Bank of England’s perceived independence, supporting Sterling even as risk sentiment deteriorates.

The sharp technology selloff and looming government shutdown reinforce defensive positioning, helping the Pound maintain elevation despite the Dollar’s modest bounce.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic neutral
• Price above 20-period EMA
• Breakout potential building

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3865; 1.3946
• Support: 1.3672; 1.3589

Fremora Takeaway
Sterling remains structurally supported while above 1.3672. A break above 1.3865 would refocus attention on the psychological 1.4000 zone, while loss of support risks a deeper correction toward 1.3589.