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STOCKS (S&P 500) — Trade Shock Triggers Broad Risk Repricing

Key Highlights

• US equities post sharp declines
• Volatility spikes amid policy uncertainty
• Trade escalation hits valuation confidence
• Earnings optimism tested by geopolitics

Market Overview

US equities retreat sharply as markets confront the implications of an expanding US–Europe trade conflict. Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy and geopolitical demands have reignited policy uncertainty, prompting broad de-risking across indices. Elevated valuations and concentrated positioning have amplified downside pressure, while rising volatility reflects growing difficulty in pricing risk amid non-economic policy drivers.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic moving toward oversold territory
• Price holding below the 20-period EMA
• Structure remains bearish despite bounce attempts

Key Levels

• Resistance: 6860.88; 6906.82
• Support: 6774.72; 6725.84

Fremora Takeaway

Equity weakness reflects a reassessment of risk rather than panic. Until policy clarity improves, rebounds are likely to face selling pressure as markets adjust expectations for growth and earnings stability.

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OIL (WTI) — Geopolitical Premium Offsets Supply Headwinds

Key Highlights

• Crude consolidates near the $60 level
• Geopolitical risk supports pricing
• Supply growth limits upside follow-through
• Dollar weakness provides marginal support

Market Overview

WTI crude trades in a tight range as geopolitical risk premiums clash with ample supply conditions. While trade tensions and temporary production disruptions have supported prices, OPEC+ output increases and robust US production continue to cap sustained upside. Dollar weakness and improved Chinese growth data have added support, leaving crude sensitive to headline-driven shifts rather than fundamentals alone.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic pulling back from overbought
• Price consolidating around the 20-period EMA
• Structure suggests pending directional resolution

Key Levels

• Resistance: 60.46; 61.74
• Support: 58.90; 57.62

Fremora Takeaway

Oil remains caught between geopolitical risk and supply reality. Until a decisive catalyst emerges, price action is likely to remain range-bound with volatility driven by headlines rather than structural demand shifts.