SPX/USD — Inflation helps, policy noise still bites

Key Highlights

• Stocks faded after early CPI relief as policy headlines hit financials
• Investors are nervous about “rules changing mid-game” (credit, buybacks, housing)
• Big data day: Retail Sales + PPI can reset rate expectations
• Market tone: risk-on appetite exists, but it’s selective

Market Overview
The S&P 500 pulled back as the market digested two things at once: inflation that didn’t scare anyone—and policy proposals that did. CPI helped the “soft landing” narrative, but sector-specific pressure (especially financials) kept the index from clean follow-through. Today’s macro data is the next trigger for whether the dip is bought quickly or extends.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic trying to turn higher from near-oversold
• Price hovering around the 20-period EMA (pivot zone)
• Market state: stabilization attempt, needs confirmation

Key Levels
Resistance: 7006.93; 7037.03
Support: 6923.41; 6893.22

Fremora Takeaway
SPX is at a decision point: above 7006 is “trend resumes,” below 6923 is “correction breathes.” Watch how the market responds to Retail Sales and PPI—those two can quickly rewrite the rate narrative.

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USO/USD (WTI) — Geopolitics re-prices crude above $60

Key Highlights

• WTI breaks above $60 as Iran risk premium spikes
• Market is pricing disruption risk despite oversupply background
• Venezuela remains a secondary wildcard (flow uncertainty)
• EIA inventories next: fundamentals vs premium test

Market Overview
Oil is doing what it usually does when a major producer becomes unstable: it reprices risk fast. The key nuance is that the market was already structurally oversupplied, so this move is mostly premium—not a clean “fundamental tightening” call. That makes crude highly headline-sensitive: escalation can extend the rally, de-escalation can unwind it sharply.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic overbought (momentum strong, but stretched)
• Price above the 20-period EMA (bulls in control short-term)
• Expect volatility spikes on headlines + inventory data

Key Levels
Resistance: 61.87; 63.00
Support: 59.60; 58.38

Fremora Takeaway
WTI can stay overbought longer than traders expect when geopolitics is the driver. But treat this as “premium pricing”: if headlines cool, price can fall back toward 59.60 quickly. The next clue is whether oil holds above $60 after EIA data.