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EUR/USD — Dollar Recovers After Fed Shock

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD pulls back from the 1.2000 psychological level
• Fed delivers a hawkish hold, lifting Treasury yields
• Conflicting US messages on Dollar policy fuel volatility
• Markets reassess the timing of future rate cuts

Market Overview

EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1963 after retreating from multi-year highs as the Dollar stabilizes following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The pullback reflects a shift in expectations after the Fed signaled less urgency to ease, while Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed a strong-dollar stance to counter earlier comments from President Trump. The combination of hawkish Fed language and official Dollar support has paused the “Sell America” momentum, introducing two-way risk into FX markets.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic attempting to turn higher from oversold
• Price holding above the 20-period EMA
• Setup suggests potential for a technical bounce

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.2083; 1.2148
• Support: 1.1848; 1.1793

Fremora Takeaway

EUR/USD remains structurally supported above the 20 EMA, but the rejection near 1.2000 highlights hesitation after the Fed’s hawkish signal. Near-term direction hinges on whether Dollar stabilization persists or fades back into policy uncertainty.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Safe Haven Demand Persists

Key Highlights

• Gold prints fresh record highs above $5,400
• Fed’s hawkish hold fails to derail the rally
• Political pressure on Fed independence supports demand
• Geopolitical risks remain elevated

Market Overview

Gold extends its historic rally, holding near record territory as investors continue prioritizing protection over yield. Despite the Fed’s hawkish hold and partial Dollar recovery, uncertainty surrounding political influence on monetary policy and escalating geopolitical tensions have sustained strong safe-haven flows. The metal’s resilience suggests gold is being treated as a strategic hedge against credibility and policy risk rather than a short-term crisis asset.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic consolidating in overbought territory
• Price holding well above the 20-period EMA
• Structure remains bullish despite stretched momentum

Key Levels

• Resistance: 5614.04; 5763.72
• Support: 5380.16; 5235.16

Fremora Takeaway

Gold’s ability to hold near record highs despite tighter Fed messaging underscores deep-seated demand driven by uncertainty rather than rates alone. Consolidation is possible, but trend control remains firmly with buyers while above key support.

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GBP/USD — Sterling Holds Firm Amid Dollar Whipsaw

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3804 after recent gains
• Fed delivers a hawkish hold, lifting yields and supporting USD
• Trump–Bessent mixed messaging fuels FX volatility
• Fed independence uncertainty adds ongoing noise to policy pricing

Market Overview

GBP/USD trades sideways as markets digest the Fed’s hawkish hold and the sharp reversal in Dollar sentiment triggered by conflicting US policy messaging. While higher yields and firmer Fed language supported the Dollar’s rebound, Sterling has remained relatively resilient, helped by perceptions of greater policy stability outside the US. With geopolitical tensions and political pressure narratives still in play, near-term FX remains driven by credibility risk rather than clean macro differentials.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic consolidating in the mid-range
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Setup is neutral with breakout risk in either direction

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3917; 1.3993
• Support: 1.3698; 1.3625

Fremora Takeaway

Sterling is holding up well, but this is still a Dollar-led market. With momentum neutral and price above the 20 EMA, direction depends on whether the Dollar rebound sustains—or fades back into policy-driven uncertainty.

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