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STOCKS (S&P 500) — Breaks Above 7,000 as AI Narrative Dominates

Key Highlights

• S&P 500 pushes above the 7,000 psychological level
• AI-led tech strength drives index resilience
• Healthcare drags on sector-specific policy headlines
• Fed decision and mega-cap earnings drive event risk

Market Overview

US equities continue to grind higher, with the S&P 500 breaking above 7,000 as investors focus on AI-linked earnings momentum rather than currency stress. Big Tech anticipation remains the engine, supported by expectations around capex and monetization signals. The Fed decision adds a major macro catalyst, but equity pricing suggests investors are still prioritizing growth narratives and earnings confirmation over broader “Sell America” anxieties in FX.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic consolidating in overbought territory
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Setup supports continuation, but volatility risk is elevated

Key Levels

• Resistance: 7030.31; 7053.16
• Support: 6971.12; 6948.27

Fremora Takeaway

The 7,000 break is a psychological win, but sustainability depends on earnings validation and Fed tone. Trend remains constructive above the 20 EMA, yet overbought conditions mean reactions around mega-cap results can quickly reshape momentum.

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OIL (WTI) — Supply Disruption + Dollar Weakness Lift Crude

Key Highlights

• US winter weather temporarily knocks out production and exports
• Kazakhstan’s Tengiz recovery remains slower than expected
• Dollar weakness adds support for commodities
• Geopolitical premium remains embedded with Middle East tension

Market Overview

WTI extends higher as traders reprice near-term supply fragility following severe US weather disruptions and export interruptions from the Gulf Coast. With exports acting as a key relief valve for US supply, even brief stoppages amplify perceived tightness. Slower recovery at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz adds another constraint, while the weaker Dollar supports demand dynamics for global buyers. The result is a market behaving more supply-sensitive than headline-driven.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic holding in overbought territory
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Setup signals bullish momentum with elevated reversal risk

Key Levels

• Resistance: 63.55; 64.43
• Support: 61.43; 60.47

Fremora Takeaway

Crude is being supported by a renewed supply-risk premium and a weaker Dollar, but overbought signals warn that extensions may be choppy. The trend remains constructive above the 20 EMA, while the next leg depends on how quickly US output normalizes and whether international supply issues persist.