SPX/USD – Rotation Keeps Index Stable

Key Highlights

• S&P flat as tech drags but defense rallies
• AI names stay under pressure (NVDA, ORCL weaker)
• Defense stocks surge on $1.5T 2027 budget call
• NFP is the next macro catalyst for risk sentiment

Market Overview

US equities showed mixed internals: the S&P held steady while tech softened, and defense outperformed sharply after Trump called for a $1.5T defense budget in 2027. The market is rotating rather than collapsing, with investors increasingly demanding broader participation beyond mega-cap tech for the rally to sustain. Friday’s NFP is the next high-impact trigger for whether risk stays supported or turns defensive.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic rebounding from oversold
• Price holding above the 20-period EMA
• Support intact unless 6885 breaks

Key Levels

Resistance: 6959.76; 6993.33
Support: 6885.43; 6853.00

Fremora Takeaway

The index is stable, but leadership is shifting—tech is no longer doing all the work. If NFP is solid, SPX has room to re-challenge 6959–6993. If NFP disappoints, watch 6885 first; a break increases downside risk toward 6853.

---

USO/USD (WTI) – Sharp Rebound Keeps Bulls Engaged

Key Highlights

• WTI rebounds strongly after two-day slide
• Market reassesses Venezuela supply timeline fears
• Price holds above 20 EMA, momentum elevated
• NFP can swing demand expectations and risk tone

Market Overview

WTI posted a strong rebound toward $58 after earlier weakness tied to Venezuelan oil transfer headlines. The rally suggests the market is questioning the immediacy and certainty of those barrels impacting near-term balances. With crude and Brent both jumping more than 4%, traders are leaning back into the upside—but Friday’s NFP can still shift demand expectations quickly.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic in overbought territory
• Price above the 20-period EMA
• Momentum bullish, but consolidation risk high

Key Levels

Resistance: 58.68; 59.32
Support: 57.19; 56.56

Fremora Takeaway

WTI is technically bullish, but overbought—meaning follow-through could slow. If NFP is strong, crude can press toward 58.68–59.32. If NFP disappoints, expect profit-taking back toward 57.19, with 56.56 as the deeper support line.