S&P 500 — AI Doubts Weigh

Key Highlights

• Microsoft sinks 10%, software enters bear market
• Index fails to hold above 7,000
• Fed hawkish hold pressures valuations
• Apple earnings now pivotal

Market Overview
The S&P 500 retreats to 6947 after failing to sustain a breakout above 7,000. Microsoft’s earnings shock reignited concerns over AI return timelines, dragging the software sector into bear-market territory and undermining broader sentiment.

Despite strength in select names like Meta, the index remains vulnerable as investors reassess valuation sustainability amid rising yields and political uncertainty.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic neutral
• Price hovering around 20-period EMA
• Decision zone forming

Key Levels

• Resistance: 7012.02; 7053.16
• Support: 6896.04; 6851.89

Fremora Takeaway
The index is at a fork in the road. Holding above 6896 keeps consolidation intact, while failure there risks a deeper correction. Apple’s earnings may determine whether 7,000 is reclaimed — or rejected.

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WTI — Geopolitics Drive Breakout

Key Highlights

• Trump weighs Iran strikes
• Carrier group deployed to Middle East
• Surprise inventory draw supports price
• January gains strongest since 2023

Market Overview
WTI surges to 64.13 as geopolitical risk premiums explode following reports of potential US strikes on Iranian targets. Inventory draws, weather-related disruptions, and slow Kazakhstan recovery reinforce supply concerns, while Dollar weakness amplifies upside pressure.

Markets are now pricing the highest geopolitical risk premium since late 2023.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic cooling from overbought
• Price well above 20-period EMA
• Consolidation after surge

Key Levels

• Resistance: 65.25; 66.24
• Support: 62.95; 61.93

Fremora Takeaway
WTI remains firmly bid above 63. Holding this level keeps the path open toward 65.25–66.24. Any escalation with Iran could trigger explosive upside, while failure to hold 62.95 would signal consolidation, not trend failure.