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EUR/USD – Dollar Strength Drags Euro Below 1.1600

Key Highlights

• US jobless claims beat strengthens USD
• Fed cut expectations pushed further out
• Powell subpoena drama cools after Trump “no firing” comment
• Oil drops on Iran de-escalation tone

Market Overview

EUR/USD slipped again as the US Dollar caught a bid on stronger labor data. The market read low jobless claims as “no rush” for Fed cuts, while a brief easing in the Powell political risk narrative reduced immediate uncertainty around Fed leadership.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic near the overbought zone
• Price holding below the 20-period EMA
• Downtrend intact despite mixed momentum signal

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.1652; 1.1701
Support: 1.1559; 1.1515

Fremora Takeaway

The euro is trading like a USD story, not a Europe story. As long as price stays under the 20-EMA, EUR/USD remains vulnerable, with 1.1559 the key “line in the sand” for bears. Any bounce likely needs a clear USD catalyst shift to sustain.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) – Risk-On Tone Limits Upside Follow-Through

Key Highlights

• Strong US claims supports “Fed hold” narrative
• Equities rebound on chip + bank strength
• Oil drop reduces immediate geopolitical premium
• Gold holds structure despite near-term headwinds

Market Overview

Gold eased back toward the $4,600 area as stronger US labor data and a risk-on equity session reduced urgency for defensive positioning. The market is still pricing political/geopolitical insurance, but Thursday’s calmer tone slowed momentum.

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic climbing toward overbought
• Price consolidating above the 20-period EMA
• Trend remains supported, but pace has cooled

Key Levels

Resistance: 4729.02; 4819.49
Support: 4496.09; 4421.03

Fremora Takeaway

Gold remains structurally bullish while it holds above the 20-EMA, but Thursday showed how quickly upside can stall when USD strengthens and equities rally. If risk appetite stays firm, gold may need time to consolidate before the next push higher.

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GBP/USD – Strong UK GDP Ignored as USD Reasserts Control

Key Highlights

• UK GDP beats expectations, but GBP still falls
• US jobless claims strengthens USD across the board
• Powell political risk briefly de-escalates
• Oil drop reduces broader risk premium support

Market Overview

Sterling couldn’t hold up even with a solid UK GDP beat, because the market prioritized US labor strength and Fed patience. In this environment, GBP/USD is trading more like “USD momentum” than “UK fundamentals.”

Technical Outlook (H4)

• Stochastic near overbought
• Price below the 20-period EMA
• Trend pressure remains bearish despite divergence

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.3443; 1.3515
Support: 1.3339; 1.3279

Fremora Takeaway

When good UK data cannot lift GBP/USD, it usually means USD is the dominant force. For bulls, the first requirement is reclaiming the 20-EMA and holding above 1.3400 again. Otherwise, support zones below 1.3340 stay in play.