USD/JPY dips back below the 155.00 psychological level as the Japanese Yen finds relief from verbal intervention warnings and a mild risk-off tone. However, long-term fiscal concerns in Japan and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations continue to support the broader uptrend.
Entry Zone: Buy pullbacks toward 154.40 – 154.60
Stop Loss: Below 154.20
Targets: 155.50, then 156.30 if breakout momentum resumes
Catalyst Watch: MoF intervention signals, BoJ policy path, US data backlog, global risk sentiment
Trading Rationale
The Yen strengthens intraday, but conviction remains weak:
- Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued fresh verbal intervention warnings, helping JPY recover modestly.
- Risk-off sentiment adds temporary safe-haven support for the Yen.
- Fiscal concerns arise as PM Takaichi plans tax cuts, raising questions about Japan’s long-term debt trajectory — a negative for JPY.
- Weak Q3 GDP and uncertainty around BoJ tightening reduce the likelihood of near-term hikes.
- Fed cut expectations have eased, supporting the USD and keeping upside bias intact for USD/JPY.
Technically, the pair remains above the H4 moving average with strong support at 154.30. Unless Japan signals imminent direct intervention, dips into the mid-154s are likely to attract buyers.
Key Technical Zones
Current Price: 154.95
Potential Resistance: 155.51 / 156.32
Potential Support: 154.33 / 153.59
DISCLAIMER & CTA
DISCLAIMER: Trading forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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