The world spent this week trading without a clean set of U.S. data — and that vacuum gave central bankers the spotlight. A surge of hawkish Fed commentary has pushed markets back into “wait-and-see” mode, just as the government shutdown finally comes to an end and the long-delayed data pipeline prepares to restart.
Below is everything that mattered this week across the U.S., Europe, Asia, and commodities — and what traders should watch heading into next week.
1. U.S. — The Fed Is Not Ready to Promise a December Cut
With no fresh data due to the extended shutdown, traders were forced to rely on Fed speakers for direction — and the message was unmistakably hawkish.
What officials said:
- St. Louis Fed (Musalem): Inflation remains “above target” and there is “limited room” for more easing.
- Boston Fed (Collins): October’s cut was justified, but rates should stay steady “for some time.”
- Vice Chair Jefferson & Chicago’s Goolsbee: Reinforced the “not a done deal” message on December cuts.
- Fed Governor Miran (Dovish): Still supports a 50 bps cut, arguing policy is too restrictive.
Despite a few dovish outliers, the overall tone tightened financial conditions. Markets adjusted quickly:
Probability of a December rate cut dropped from 63% → 42%.
Why the hesitation?
Because the Fed is flying partially blind.
- The government shutdown froze major U.S. economic data.
- The last full employment report is from August.
- State-level jobless claims show the labor market is cooling, but not collapsing.
Growth is still solid
- Q3 GDP is tracking 3.5%, stronger than expected.
- But Q4 and early 2026 should slow as consumer spending softens and uncertainty weighs on businesses.
Small business sentiment weakens
- NFIB Small Business Optimism fell for a second month, hitting its lowest level since April.
- Owners cite high costs, interest rates, and sluggish demand.
Fremora Take:
The Fed wants more evidence before cutting again — and the missing data makes that impossible for now. December is still in play, but the bar is higher.
2. U.S. Data Outlook — The Backlog Is About to Hit
Now that the government has reopened, agencies are rushing to release delayed reports.
Expected next week:
- September Nonfarm Payrolls (Tues/Wed)
- Existing Home Sales (Thu)
The first wave will include pre-shutdown data — clean but outdated.
October data may be incomplete, and some reports could be skipped entirely.
The September Jobs Report (delayed)
Fremora expects:
- +45K jobs
- Unemployment: 4.3%
- Wage growth: +0.3% m/m
If unemployment ticks to 4.4%, the Fed may feel more pressure to cut in December.
3. International — Mixed Signals Across the Global Economy
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Stuck in Low Gear
- Q3 GDP: +0.1% QoQ
- Wage growth cooling
- Manufacturing and industrial production weaker than expected
BoE Outlook:
A December 25 bps cut remains likely, with steady quarterly cuts through 2026 unless fiscal policy becomes more stimulative.
🇦🇺 Australia — A Surprise Labor Market Rebound
- Employment: +42.2K, driven entirely by full-time jobs
- Jobless rate fell from 4.5% → 4.3%
RBA Outlook:
Rates likely on hold in December, with cuts pushed to early 2026 (Q1 or Q2).
🇨🇳 China — Momentum Slips Again
- Industrial production: 4.9% YoY (miss)
- Retail sales: 2.9% YoY (small beat but slowing)
Persistent headwinds:
- Consumer deflation
- Weak confidence
- Property stress
- Limited ability to add more stimulus
China 2025 GDP forecast: 4.9%, slowing to 4.3% in 2026.
4. Global Indicators to Watch Next Week
- Japan GDP (Mon) — expected –2.4% QoQ annualized
- Canada CPI (Mon) — expected 2.2% YoY
- Eurozone PMIs (Fri) — manufacturing likely back near 50.0, services slightly softer
5. Markets — Dollar Softens, Gold Remains in Beast Mode
Gold surged to $4,099/oz, extending its monster run as uncertainty, weak data visibility, and shifting rate expectations fuel demand for safe assets.
U.S. 10-year yields drifted slightly higher to 4.14% as Fed hawkishness grew.
Forex snapshot:
- EUR/USD: 1.161
- GBP/USD: 1.315
- USD/JPY: 154.74
- DXY: 99.30 (still trending lower)
Commodities:
- WTI: $60.09
- Copper: Strong at 506¢/lb
- Natural gas: $4.47
Fremora Outlook — What Traders Should Prepare For
Key Themes for Next Week
- A wave of delayed U.S. data will finally hit the market — but much of it is outdated.
- The Fed is stuck balancing incomplete data with rising uncertainty.
- Europe shows mild stabilization, but China continues to drag on global sentiment.
- Risk assets will stay volatile until markets get clarity on the U.S. jobs picture.
What to Watch
- The September jobs number (late release)
- Any hint of an October CPI “partial report”
- Eurozone PMI trends
- Japan GDP reaction in USD/JPY and Nikkei futures
The theme is simple:
Markets are trading blind — and blind markets overreact.
Next week will be about filling the information gap.