Gold continues its impressive rally, trading above $4,200 as the end of the US government shutdown promises a flood of economic data that could justify more Fed easing.
Entry Zone: Buy dips to $4,145-$4,160 area
Stop Loss: Below $4,040
Targets: $4,272 resistance first, then $4,376 if bullish momentum persists
Catalyst Watch: Post-shutdown US economic data releases, Fed speakers
Trading Rationale
The XAU/USD shows robust bullish momentum:
- Price action pushing to record highs with strong momentum
- End of the 43-day US government shutdown triggering renewed Fed cut expectations
- White House confirmation of delayed economic data releases imminent
- Technical setup remains bullish with price holding above key support levels
The fundamental narrative supporting gold remains intact – expectations that forthcoming economic data will confirm US labor market weakness, reinforcing the case for further Fed rate cuts in December.
However, traders should note Fed officials’ increasing caution. Boston Fed’s Collins, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, and Cleveland Fed’s Hammack have all expressed preference for holding rates steady, with markets now pricing just 51% chance of a December cut (down from 63%).
The key resistance at $4,272 will be critical – a break higher opens the path toward the next major target at $4,376.
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